Document Type : Original research papers
Author
Engineering Department, Higher Institute for Engineering and Technology, New Damietta 34517, Egypt.
Abstract
Irrigation is critical for food security; yet, climate change impacts the water required for long-term irrigation. The current study examines how climate change impacts future irrigation needs in Egypt's Greater Cairo Territory (Cairo, Giza, and Qalyubia) using the medium emission RCP 4.5 and high emission RCP 8.5 scenarios for the future years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. Crop, soil, and climate data for the current scenario 2023 were acquired from Giza station. Crop, soil, and climate data for the current scenario 2023 were acquired from Giza station. The FAO-CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to calculate evapotranspiration (ETo) and irrigation crop requirements (CWR) for the principal crop’s maize, cotton, rice, sugar beet, tomato, wheat, dry bean, berseem clover, and potatoes. The results show that ETo values for RCP 4.5 for the years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 indicate an increase of 2.9, 4.07, 5.35, and 6.43% respectively above the current scenario 2023, whereas, RCP 8.5 for same years indicate a rise of 3.64, 5.59, 8.5, and 11.4% respectively. The study area is semi-arid, and rainfall during the winter season contributes only a small amount of irrigation water as the effective rainfall in the study area is zero. RCP 4.5 shows a reduction in CWR by 5.5, 6.6, 8.1, and 8.9% for years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 respectively, compared to the current scenario (2023). While for the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 for the same years, the decrease in CWR was 6.0, 8.3, 11.0, and 13.0%, respectively. Crop water requirements variations can be used to make appropriate suggestions for future irrigation planning and reservoir operation modeling in Egypt's regions. This study looks into mitigation and adaptation strategies for the effects of climate change on crop production in Egypt.
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